To Recount Measure 92

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Updated figures show the narrowing of the margin (6634 votes) between ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ on Measure 92 continues. However, absent something unexpected regarding the remaining count or a legal challenge to it, Oregon will not be labeling GMOs. Or will it?

From my last post, let’s assume the 40,000 uncounted votes figures is accurate as of Friday at 5:18pm. Since then, the state reports that another 16,632 votes were counted, leaving 23,368 votes still to count. From those newly counted ballots, Measure 92 gained a net of +1666 votes (gap of 8300 then, 6634 now). But if ‘Yes on 92’ can only gain a net of 10% of still uncounted votes, then they can’t win, there just aren’t enough uncounted votes remaining. But winning isn’t everything, because if you can force a recount, you have another chance.

Oregon law states (bold is mine): “If the official canvass of votes of an election reveals that the difference in the number of votes cast for or against any measure is not more than one-fifth of one percent of the total votes cast for and against the measure, the Secretary of State, in the case of a measure for which the Secretary of State is the filing officer, and the county clerk who conducted the election in the case of any other measure shall order a full recount of all votes cast for the measure.

Current Measure 92 vote count is 1,475,696. Add the supposed remaining 23,368 votes and that gives a vote total of 1,499,064. A margin of “one-fifth of one percent” is 2,998. So the real question now becomes, can ‘Yes on 92’ whittle the lead down to just under 3000 votes?

Technically, they can. But how likely is it?
141110 5pm OR M92 votes
Not surprisingly, the ‘Yes’ side is winning biggest in Multnomah county (62.37%). The best case scenario for ‘Yes’ is that every remaining uncounted ballot is in Multnomah county, but I doubt this is true. If they fall exactly at the ratio shown thus far in the counting, that only widens the gap. So how many of the uncounted vote does ‘Yes’ need to force a recount?  58%.

So this race is definitely not over, but it will be if ‘Yes on 92’ can’t pick up at least 13,553 of the remaining votes, once again, assuming the uncounted numbers are accurate. Adding those numbers in would put ‘Yes’ at 748,084 and ‘No’ at 750,980, still a clear defeat of the measure but a margin of only 2,895 votes which would be less than 0.2% of the votes on Measure 92. And we’re headed into a recount.

Keep in mind though that hitting 58% is something the ‘Yes’ campaign achieved only in Multnomah county (Lane is currently at 57.54% ‘Yes’). As has been the trend in this particular race, as the trailing side has steadily made up ground, possible reinforcements have been reduced just a little quicker.

 

5 thoughts on “To Recount Measure 92

  1. A man identified as “Vernon” called in to the Abe & Joe Show about a week ago stating knowledge from involvement in Washington State elections, that ballot counting software has a persistent Republican bias. He called in behalf of Measure 92. I believe he said a recall could be requested even if not commanded by closeness. I recall his message as recount is an opportunity to prove the fraud of software bias. Is he right? Are we out of luck if the gap doesn’t quite close enough? Could a recount be privately funded if asked-for?

    I called in to Abe & Joe too, for only my second time on-air, saying Abe & Joe dissed Vernon’s message. They were rude, I think they agreed.

    It seems you are taking the leadership in this for KBOO. Thank you.

    1. Thanks for reading my blog Phillip. Yes, as per ORS 258.161 there are many different people who can request a recount. The example I cited in the post refers only to an automatic mandatory recount based on the closeness of the vote.

      While I have worked with KBOO for nearly 20 years on air, this blog isn’t connected to them in any way.

      1. Thank you, Andrew. I returned today, in hope this conversation might answer the question of how a recount is done. If felonious software bias exists and is to be looked-for in this, the recount must be fully manual. Following your link to OregonLaws.org, I look further at definition of Counting Boards, http://www.oregonlaws.org/ors/258.200. I don’t see an answer to my question.

        Does a recount bypass any software that might be corrupt? I think it is important to discuss this, acknowledging widely held belief the murder of Mike Connell enabled continuation of election theft. The murder was not investigated, and was not mentioned much, even on NPR. Silence is brazenly defended by Karl Rove, threatening suit for defamation against any newscaster alleging he ordered it. Don’t readers here share the concern? Let us please speak up about deeper reasons for recount. Are we afraid of enforcers? Is that why Abe & Joe instinctively backed off? Could Karl Rove sue even a little person like me? I have some fear. Wonderful things could happen if Oregon detects unambiguous creep behavior.

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