Update 6:00 pm
Measure 92, the ballot initiative seeking to label most genetically modified food in Oregon, is still failing but the margin continues to narrow. Right now, the ‘no’ vote has 50.35% of the vote, a lead of under 9900 votes and the narrowest margin they’ve enjoyed today. But it might be too late, as the number of uncounted votes may no longer be enough, given the close nature of the outcome in many counties, to change the result.
Update 4:35 pm
A whole new batch of county voting numbers should be released in about half an hour. The attached image shows statewide totals as of less than 30 minutes ago.
The gap between sides on Measure 92 has been seesawing up and down all day. Right now, Measure 92 is failing by a little over 13,000 votes statewide. Knowing how many uncounted ballots still exist is crucial. This includes those that are damaged, unsigned etc…, and knowing how many will be challenged during the next weeks.
Originally posted 1:45 pm
Two hours ago, I posted a shorter version of this on Facebook, not realizing that I would decide to blog about this as I have too many other things to do, but this race is very interesting.
At 10:21 am this morning The Oregonian, based on an internal analysis, said that Measure 92 lost. I had run some numbers based on the percent of votes counted and the actual totals and realized that there are still a very significant number of uncounted votes out there. This race was definitely not over.
I called The Oregonian and spoke with the reporter who wrote their piece, asking him if they jumped the gun on calling the race. I told him that public numbers showed something like 70,000 uncounted votes, while Measure 92 was behind by only 16k votes (this is at 11:30 am).
I was told that The Oregonian had their own in-house analysis of numbers, trends through the night and in what counties there were known uncounted votes to decide to call the race.
They obviously have more resources to throw at this, but I still think the Oregonian jumped the gun on this one and so does the Yes on 92 campaign.